17 September 2009

 

 The first straw Poll for the election of the Director General of UNESCO

The first straw poll organiszed by UNESCO Executive Board took place in the afternoon of 17 September 2009 at UNESCO. The total vote is 58. The vote required to be elected is 30.
There were 9 candidates. Namely, 2 from Arab countries ;
4 from Europe
2 from Africa
1 from latin Amrica
The next table shows the result of first poll as follws :

Arab countries : Algeria Mohammed Bedjaoui              0
Egypt Farouk Hosni                                                   22
Europe Lithuania Ina Marciulionyte                               3
Bulgaria Irina Bokova                                                   8
Russia Alexander Yakovenko                                       7
Austria Benita Ferrero-Waldner                                    7
Africa Tanzania Sospeter                                              2
Benin Nourein Tidjani-Derpos                                       2

Latin Amrica Ecuator Ivone Juez de A. Baki                  7

 

There is no one who obtained 30 votes  to be elected.

As expected, Farouk Hosni got 22 votes. He is heading.

 

What we draw some tendency through this first poll?

First, according the practice of the UN system, the geographic turn was applied. In fact, it is the turn of Arab country to lead UNESCO . The controversial handicaft of Egyptian candidate was conpensated by the argument of geographic turn .

Second, the political weight of country played an important role. Oviously, in spite of the criticism to Hosni, the political heavy role in peace building of Egypt in the world, in particular vis a vis Israel and Pallestine issue was clearly identified through this vote. No doubt USA can ignore this reality.

Third, the age factor showed evidently. Per example, the candidate of Algeria, aged 80 years old, was disadvantaged. Other wise, he is the most qualified candidate whose coutry's political weight did not matter.

Fourth, the gender argument was respected. The total vote for women candidates was 25, by representing 43% of total votes. This showed that women empowerment in the UNESCO was well demonstrated .

Fifth, although the African Union and the Arab League recommended for Hosni, we saw three candidates were presented from these regions. But their scores were weak and their participation in competition did not weakend the score of Hosni.  It will not no longer influence the situation.

Six, in consequence, the theory of geographic solidarity that the voters support in general the candidates of their region is not proved for the moment. While the total voting power of Europe is 15, the candidates of Europe got 25 votes. Therefore, 10 votes came from other region. Several votes came from Asia and Africa. . This can happen always in the first round. But in subsequent poll the above theory will be reestablished.

Finally, the vote merged into three main groups : 1.Arab countries and African countries, 2. European countries , 3. Latin America. According to sixth remark, the future victory of the candidates in second poll could depend largely on Asian voters who have not their own candidates and enjoy 12 voting power.

 

Tae-Ho YOO

 

 

 

 

20  September 2009

 Election of New Director-Gneral of UNESCO

Analysis of 2nd and 3th Straw polls .

                                         1st Poll       2ndPoll        3rd Poll      + ( from 2 and 3)
Candidate
Farouk Hosni                        22             23                  25                + 2
Irina Bokoba                          8                8                  13                + 5
Benita Ferrer-Waldner           7                8                    9                  +1
Ivone Baki                             7                8                    9                  +1
Ina Marclulionyte                   3                 4                    0                    0
Alenander Yakovenko           7                 3                    0                    0
Noureini Tidjan-Serpots         2                2                    0                     0
Sospter Muhhongo                 1                 1                   0                     0
Mohammed bedjaoui              0                 0                   0                     0

We attemp to draw some trend from the above table.

1. Although the criticism contnues against his candidature , Hosni maintained his increase which is not spectalar, but constant.
2. As the Prime Minister of Israel asked the media to stop criticism against Hosni, it appears to the voters that the criticism against Hosni seems exagerated.
3. The argument for the trun of Arab country we evoked on 17 September seems to be more clearly understood by the voters.
 In the case of the election of actual Secretary-General of UN, US administration tried to deny the practice of geographic turn which was Asia. But in isistence of China , Russia and Japan, US Administration came back to  the  practice of  geographic turn.
4. Some mebers are afraid that Hosni, once elected , would enforce only the progarms of culture. This doubt is short minded. We have recognized that since several years with Heritage Program UNESCO's visibility increased considerably.
Why we should weaken the programs highly demanded and  appreciated. We do not imagine even one second the traditional  program such as Education and Science can be ignored.

5. Some members of Board listen to say that Hosni is not good manager. On the contrary, the Ministry of Culture of Egypt is the most important administration of Egypt which spends money for but also creates income from important number of cultural munuments and cultural activites in Egypt. This ministry employs almost million of workers and employees.
In this regard, we refer to the working paper prepared by Dr. Mohamed Ghoneim, Under-Secretary of State for External Cultural Relations, Ministry of Culture, presented to the UNESCO International Expert Meeting on Cultural Indicators , Cairo, 1993, organised in collaboration wth Professor Mohamed Fathaliah El-Kathib and Professor Hassan El-Saaty.

This paper showed not only the magnitude of policy work of the Ministry of Culture but also elaboration and execution of the huge plans of public works for cultural monuments and activities.
The actual income of the Egyptian Government is around $40 billions per year.10% of this income comes from the activities of the Ministry of Culture.
. How can people imagine one minister of such important administration could stay in his position during 22 years, without adminisrating properly its ministry ?

6.The voters of Baki, apparently backed by Washington, start to question about her chance and may propose an alternative strategy.

7.  Bokoba  increased significantly her score.  Her performance in her work in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria on Bugarian integration in Europe  and NATO was remarked and her campaign as member of UNESCO Executive Board was well organised vis à vis the countries of Executive Board ( 58 countries).

8.In spite of her good presentation, Ferrero increased  only 2 votes.

.

Some future scenario ?

. We speculate the scenario how 5 regions would vote, in 4th poll, assuming that each region agrees for a common strategy, based on the theory that the voters vote for their candidates, except Asian group which has no candidate.

 

Probability of Voting stratgy by 5 groups in 4th Poll

          Africa 13, Arab region 7 ,Europe 15,  Latin America10,   Asia 12

Hosni           13           7              0                       0                            5
Ferrero          0            0             7                       0                            4
Bokova          0            0             7                       2                            3
Baki               0            0             1                       8                            0

In this case, there will be no one elected. Hosni and Bokova will go to final.

But in case Bokova and Ferrero-Waldner may try to make an alliance with Baki in view of a single candidate, probably  Bokova , in 4th poll, then the follwing scenario could be envisaged :

Hosni           13              7             2                     0                          7 <>    29
Bokova

or Ferrero     0                0            13                   10                         5 <>   28

In this case, with 1 abstention, the Board should vote again as final. Because no one obtained 30 votes.

In final vote, all will depend on how the Asian group consciencious of the criteria of management capacity of candidate can be reasured of the managerial skill of Hosni.   On the other hand, it depends on how fast the Eurpean and American coalition's candidte could convince the balancing power which is Asian group and some miner voters.

Tae-Ho Yoo

 

 

22 September 2009

 

 Final Vote for the selction of new Director-General.

 

The American, European and Baki 's supporters (Latin America) came to select Irina  Gueorguieva  Bokova as thier colation candidate against favoured candidate Farouk Hosni.

 

Our second scenario and possible more or less equality speculation was exact.

 

The most people thought Farouk Hosni would win with 30 votes. But it happened with surprise entirely contrary.  So,  Irina Gueorguieva BOKOVA was selected with 31 votes  by the Executive Board to be presented  to the plenary session of General Conference  on 15 October 2009, to get its  final approval. If approved, Irina BOKOVA  will start her work at UNESCO  from 1 January 2010.

 

 Tae-Ho Yoo

 

 16 October 2009

 

On 15 October 2009, Irina BOKOVA got the approval of the General Conference. The vote was not unanimmous. About 40 countries on 1992 voted against her. It presents about 21 percents.They are probably Arab, African  and Asian countries.